What if you bought PepsiCo in 1990?
US Consumer · Drinks. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play18.8× · S&P 500 same money: $19,429
$1,000 in PepsiCo at the start of 1990 would be worth about $18,750 today. A plain S&P 500 index fund over the same years would have made more — the boring option won.
The story
PepsiCo is often seen as Coca-Cola's eternal rival, but it is really a snacks company with drinks attached: Frito-Lay, with Lay's, Doritos and Cheetos, is its largest profit engine. In 2001 it bought Quaker Oats, mostly to acquire Gatorade, and the combination of salty snacks and drinks gave it more diversification than its rival.
That difference showed in returns. While Coke stagnated through the 2000s, Pepsi's stock rose steadily into 2008 under chief executive Indra Nooyi, who pushed toward healthier products. The 2010s were steadier still, despite activist pressure from Nelson Peltz's Trian to split snacks from drinks, which the company resisted. The stock rose to new highs during and after the pandemic as snacking boomed. By the mid-2020s, however, sales volumes declined as price increases met consumer resistance and weight-loss drugs raised doubts about long-term demand for snacks. Another activist, Elliott, took a stake in 2025. Over the full period, its total returns were steady, if unexciting, with dividends contributing a major share.
The lesson: Diversification within a company can dampen volatility, but no portfolio of brands is immune to shifts in consumer tastes and health trends.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $8.00 | $18,750 | $19,429 | 18.8× |
| 1995 | $17.00 | $8,824 | $14,783 | 8.8× |
| 2000 | $35.00 | $4,286 | $4,626 | 4.3× |
| 2003 | $42.00 | $3,571 | $7,727 | 3.6× |
| 2005 | $52.00 | $2,885 | $5,763 | 2.9× |
| 2007 | $63.00 | $2,381 | $4,789 | 2.4× |
| 2008 | $76.00 | $1,974 | $4,626 | 2.0× |
| 2010 | $61.00 | $2,459 | $6,071 | 2.5× |
| 2012 | $66.00 | $2,273 | $5,312 | 2.3× |
| 2015 | $95.00 | $1,579 | $3,301 | 1.6× |
| 2018 | $120 | $1,250 | $2,519 | 1.2× |
| 2020 | $137 | $1,095 | $2,092 | 1.1× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 1990, turning $1,000 into $18,750. The S&P 500 from that same year: $19,429.
On this day
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. PepsiCo is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
Play Sixty-40More in US Consumer
- What if you bought Walmart?
- What if you bought Home Depot?
- What if you bought Costco?
- What if you bought Target?
- What if you bought Best Buy?
- What if you bought Starbucks?