What if you bought Walmart in 1990?
US Consumer · Retail. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play28.6× · S&P 500 same money: $19,429
$1,000 in Walmart at the start of 1990 would be worth about $28,571 today — 28.6 times your money, and ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch.
The story
Walmart began in 1962 in Arkansas, and by the 1990s it had become the largest retailer in the world, with supercenters and a relentless focus on low prices and supply-chain efficiency. The stock rose sharply through the 1990s as the company expanded into groceries and abroad, reaching a high valuation by the end of the decade.
Then growth slowed and the stock went nowhere for more than a decade: the 2000 price was roughly the same in 2012. Profit grew steadily, but investors had paid too much in advance. Amazon became a looming threat, and Walmart was seen as old retail. In 2016 it bought the e-commerce startup Jet.com and began investing heavily in online shopping, delivery and advertising. That bet, alongside stronger groceries and rising traffic from higher-income shoppers, helped the stock break out, and between 2020 and 2026 it rose substantially. The company proved incumbents can adapt, though it took years of investment.
The lesson: Even a great business can be a poor investment if you pay too high a price; valuation determines whether excellent growth translates into returns.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $3.50 | $28,571 | $19,429 | 28.6× |
| 1995 | $7.50 | $13,333 | $14,783 | 13.3× |
| 2000 | $22.00 | $4,545 | $4,626 | 4.5× |
| 2003 | $17.00 | $5,882 | $7,727 | 5.9× |
| 2005 | $18.00 | $5,556 | $5,763 | 5.6× |
| 2007 | $15.00 | $6,667 | $4,789 | 6.7× |
| 2008 | $16.00 | $6,250 | $4,626 | 6.2× |
| 2010 | $18.00 | $5,556 | $6,071 | 5.6× |
| 2012 | $20.00 | $5,000 | $5,312 | 5.0× |
| 2015 | $29.00 | $3,448 | $3,301 | 3.4× |
| 2018 | $33.00 | $3,030 | $2,519 | 3.0× |
| 2020 | $40.00 | $2,500 | $2,092 | 2.5× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 1990, turning $1,000 into $28,571. The S&P 500 from that same year: $19,429.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Walmart is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
Play Sixty-40More in US Consumer
- What if you bought Home Depot?
- What if you bought Costco?
- What if you bought Target?
- What if you bought Best Buy?
- What if you bought Starbucks?
- What if you bought McDonald's?