What if you bought Home Depot in 1990?
US Consumer · Retail. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play333.3× · S&P 500 same money: $19,429
$1,000 in Home Depot at the start of 1990 would be worth about $333,333 today — 333.3 times your money, and ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch.
The story
Home Depot was founded in 1978 by Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank, and the big-box home improvement chain transformed the industry. Through the 1990s it opened stores at an extraordinary pace and became one of the decade's biggest stock winners, multiplying many times over.
The 2000s were tougher. Under CEO Bob Nardelli, from General Electric, the company focused on cost-cutting and efficiency, which alienated staff and customers, and the stock stagnated. Nardelli left in 2007 with a large severance package, just as the housing bubble burst. The stock fell sharply in 2008 as home improvement spending collapsed. Under Frank Blake and his successors, it restored customer service and benefited from the housing recovery. Higher home prices and an aging housing stock drove renovation spending. It also built out its business serving professional contractors, including the 2024 purchase of SRS Distribution. From its 2009 low, the stock became one of the steadiest compounders among big retailers.
The lesson: Cyclical companies tied to housing can look broken at the bottom of a cycle; strong businesses often recover when the cycle turns.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $1.20 | $333,333 | $19,429 | 333.3× |
| 1995 | $4.50 | $88,889 | $14,783 | 88.9× |
| 2000 | $30.00 | $13,333 | $4,626 | 13.3× |
| 2003 | $24.00 | $16,667 | $7,727 | 16.7× |
| 2005 | $42.00 | $9,524 | $5,763 | 9.5× |
| 2007 | $40.00 | $10,000 | $4,789 | 10.0× |
| 2008 | $27.00 | $14,815 | $4,626 | 14.8× |
| 2010 | $29.00 | $13,793 | $6,071 | 13.8× |
| 2012 | $42.00 | $9,524 | $5,312 | 9.5× |
| 2015 | $105 | $3,810 | $3,301 | 3.8× |
| 2018 | $190 | $2,105 | $2,519 | 2.1× |
| 2020 | $220 | $1,818 | $2,092 | 1.8× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 1990, turning $1,000 into $333,333. The S&P 500 from that same year: $19,429.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Home Depot is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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