What if you bought Chipotle in 2007?
US Consumer · Food. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play40.9× · S&P 500 same money: $4,789
$1,000 in Chipotle at the start of 2007 would be worth about $40,909 today — 40.9 times your money, and ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch.
The story
Chipotle opened in Denver in 1993 and got early funding from McDonald's, which sold out around its 2006 IPO. The fast-casual burrito chain, built on fresh ingredients and an assembly line, became one of the best-performing restaurant stocks: the split-adjusted price rose from around a dollar in 2007 to nearly fourteen by 2015, survived a sharp drop in 2008, and rarely looked cheap.
That premium relied on the promise of food with integrity. In late 2015, outbreaks of E. coli and norovirus linked to its restaurants made customers sick and hurt that brand promise badly. Sales fell, and the stock lost more than half its value. In 2018 the company hired Brian Niccol from Taco Bell, who emphasized digital ordering, drive-through Chipotlanes and marketing, and the stock rebounded to new highs. In 2024 the company did a fifty-for-one stock split; later that year Niccol left for Starbucks. Traffic softened afterwards, and the stock retreated from its peak.
The lesson: A brand built on trust in its product is especially vulnerable to safety failures; one scandal can undo years of premium valuation.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | $1.10 | $40,909 | $4,789 | 40.9× |
| 2008 | $3.00 | $15,000 | $4,626 | 15.0× |
| 2010 | $1.80 | $25,000 | $6,071 | 25.0× |
| 2012 | $6.80 | $6,618 | $5,312 | 6.6× |
| 2015 | $13.70 | $3,285 | $3,301 | 3.3× |
| 2018 | $5.80 | $7,759 | $2,519 | 7.8× |
| 2020 | $16.80 | $2,679 | $2,092 | 2.7× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 2007, turning $1,000 into $40,909. The S&P 500 from that same year: $4,789.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Chipotle is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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