2 January 2019: Tim Cook writes a letter nobody wanted to read
Apple warned investors that holiday-quarter revenue would come in around $84 billion, well below its earlier guidance, blaming weak iPhone demand in China. It was Apple's first revenue warning in well over a decade, and the stock slid roughly 10% the next day. Commentators declared peak iPhone. Within about two years the shares had more than tripled. The letter was honest bad news; the panic that followed was the bargain.
The lesson: A great business having a bad quarter is not the same thing as a bad business.
What it meant for investors
$1,000 in Apple at the start of 2020 → $3,333 today, vs $2,092 in the S&P 500.
We start the clock at the start of 2020, the first year in our price data after the event. That is 3.3 times the money, and $1,241 more than a plain index fund made over the same years.
What Apple teaches: The best returns often come from companies that looked finished; Apple was a near-bankrupt also-ran in 1997, which is exactly why it was cheap.
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $27.00 | $9,259 | $3,301 |
| 2018 | $43.00 | $5,814 | $2,519 |
| 2020 | $75.00 | $3,333 | $2,092 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
What if you bought Apple? Every starting year and the full story →
More Apple history
- 9 January 2007: Steve Jobs unveils the iPhone
- 24 January 1984: The Macintosh goes on sale
- 27 January 2010: Apple unveils the iPad
- 1 April 1976: Apple is founded, and one co-founder cashes out early
- 11 April 1976: The Apple I goes on sale for $666.66
- 24 April 2015: The Apple Watch arrives
Could you have called it at the time? The wheel picks the year, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick.
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