What if you bought Nikola in 2020?
Hype · EV. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play0× · S&P 500 same money: $2,092
Every dollar is gone. Nikola went bankrupt in 2025 after a truck was filmed rolling downhill, so $1,000 invested in any of these years is worth exactly nothing today.
The story
Nikola promised to revolutionise trucking with battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell semis, borrowing its name from Nikola Tesla in a not-so-subtle nod. It went public in June 2020 by merging with a SPAC, and its market value briefly rivalled that of Ford despite having little revenue. Founder Trevor Milton was a prolific promoter on social media. A partnership with General Motors in September 2020 seemed to cement its status.
Days later, the short seller Hindenburg Research published a report alleging deception, including that a 2018 promotional video of the Nikola One truck "in motion" had in fact shown it rolling down a hill. Milton resigned, the GM deal was scaled back, and in 2022 he was convicted of fraud. He was pardoned by President Trump in 2025. Nikola delivered a modest number of trucks, suffered battery recalls and continuous cash needs, and filed for bankruptcy in February 2025. Shareholders were left with essentially nothing.
The lesson: When a company's valuation rests on promises rather than products, independent verification matters more than charismatic founders or celebrity partnerships.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.00 | $0 | $2,092 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
There was no good entry point: every starting year ends at zero. The same $1,000 in the S&P 500 from 2020 would be $2,092 today.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Nikola is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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