What if you bought GoPro in 2015?
Hype · Gadget. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play0.0× · S&P 500 same money: $3,301
$1,000 in GoPro at the start of 2015 would be worth about $15.87 today. A plain S&P 500 index fund over the same years would have made more — the boring option won.
The story
GoPro made small, rugged action cameras that became the default way for surfers, skiers and cyclists to film themselves. Founder Nick Woodman started the company in 2002, and after its 2014 IPO the stock briefly soared on hopes of a media company built around user content. Few consumer gadgets have ever been so recognisable.
The problem was the smartphone. As phone cameras improved and gained stabilisation, the market for a separate camera narrowed to enthusiasts. GoPro tried to diversify, notably with the Karma drone in 2016, which was recalled shortly after launch because some units lost power mid-flight; the company exited drones in 2018. Sales stagnated, competition from DJI and Insta360 intensified, and losses returned. The share price slid from its early highs, with occasional rebounds as new models arrived, but never recovered. GoPro remained in business, a reasonable camera company priced as a reasonable camera company.
The lesson: A single-product hardware company faces constant obsolescence risk, and features that once defined a category can be absorbed into a cheaper general device.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $63.00 | $15.87 | $3,301 |
| 2018 | $7.50 | $133 | $2,519 |
| 2020 | $4.30 | $233 | $2,092 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 2020, turning $1,000 into $233. The S&P 500 from that same year: $2,092.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. GoPro is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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