20 March 2003: The Iraq War begins
US-led forces began the invasion of Iraq. In a classic case of buying the news, stocks had already rallied strongly in the days before, and oil prices had fallen sharply as the risk of a prolonged supply shock faded. The war itself turned out to be long and costly, but for markets, the uncertainty before the invasion had been worse than the event. Anticipation is often priced in early.
The lesson: Markets often move more on the resolution of uncertainty than on the outcome itself.
What it meant for investors
$1,000 in Crude oil (barrel) at the start of 2003 → $2,031 today, vs $7,727 in the S&P 500.
We start the clock at the start of 2003, the year it happened. That is 2.0 times the money, but $5,696 less than a plain index fund made over the same years.
What Crude oil (barrel) teaches: You cannot easily own oil itself, only futures contracts; the negative print of April 2020 showed that storage and contract mechanics can dominate supply and demand.
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | $32.00 | $2,031 | $7,727 |
| 2005 | $43.00 | $1,512 | $5,763 |
| 2007 | $60.00 | $1,083 | $4,789 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
What if you bought Crude oil (barrel)? Every starting year and the full story →
More Crude oil (barrel) history
- 17 January 1991: Oil collapses as Desert Storm begins
- 20 April 2020: US oil prices go negative
- 11 July 2008: Oil peaks at $147 a barrel
- 29 August 2005: Hurricane Katrina hits the Gulf Coast
- 17 October 1973: Arab oil producers wield the oil weapon
- 26 November 2021: Omicron spoils Black Friday
Could you have called it at the time? The wheel picks the year, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick.
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