What if you bought Petrobras in 2005?
World · Brazil. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play4.3× · S&P 500 same money: $5,763
$1,000 in Petrobras at the start of 2005 would be worth about $4,333 today. A plain S&P 500 index fund over the same years would have made more — the boring option won.
The story
Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil company, listed in New York and Sao Paulo, with the government holding a majority of voting shares. Its great discovery came in 2007, when it announced vast pre-salt oil fields deep beneath the Atlantic, and the shares soared on a wave of commodity-boom optimism. In 2010 it raised roughly $70 billion in what was then the largest share offering ever, partly paid by the government in oil rights. The timing was unfortunate: the company spent heavily, fuel-price controls forced it to sell petrol below import cost, and debt mounted.
From 2014 the Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation exposed a vast kickback scheme linking contractors, Petrobras executives and politicians, eventually reaching former presidents. Combined with the oil-price collapse of 2014-2016, the shares fell by about 85 percent from their highs. Under later managements Petrobras cut debt, sold assets and paid very large dividends during the 2021-2022 oil spike, though every change of government revived fears of political interference in pricing and investment. The price recovered but stayed far below its peak.
The lesson: In state-controlled companies minority shareholders rank behind political goals, so dividends and pricing policy can change with every election.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | $3.00 | $4,333 | $5,763 | 4.3× |
| 2007 | $10.00 | $1,300 | $4,789 | 1.3× |
| 2008 | $23.00 | $565 | $4,626 | 0.6× |
| 2010 | $47.00 | $277 | $6,071 | 0.3× |
| 2012 | $27.00 | $481 | $5,312 | 0.5× |
| 2015 | $7.00 | $1,857 | $3,301 | 1.9× |
| 2018 | $10.00 | $1,300 | $2,519 | 1.3× |
| 2020 | $16.00 | $812 | $2,092 | 0.8× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 2005, turning $1,000 into $4,333. The S&P 500 from that same year: $5,763.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Petrobras is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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