What if you bought Netflix in 2003?
US Tech · Streaming. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play1466.7× · S&P 500 same money: $7,727
$1,000 in Netflix at the start of 2003 would be worth about $1,466,667 today — 1466.7 times your money, and ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch.
The story
Netflix began as a DVD-by-mail rental service, the polite red envelope that slowly drained Blockbuster of its late fees. It went public in 2002, and through the mid-2000s the shares climbed as subscribers grew, despite doubts about whether mailing discs could ever be a big business. In 2007 it began streaming, at first as a free extra for DVD customers.
The pivot was messy. In 2011 a price hike and a short-lived plan to spin the DVD business into a separate brand called Qwikster triggered a customer revolt and a share price collapse. Netflix recovered by betting on original programming, starting with House of Cards in 2013, and by expanding to nearly every country on earth. When legacy studios launched their own services around 2019 and subscriber growth stalled in 2022, the stock plunged again; a crackdown on password sharing and a cheaper ad-supported tier brought it back. From 2003 the gain was well over a thousandfold, with several near-death experiences on the way.
The lesson: Huge winners rarely feel safe while you hold them; Netflix suffered several drawdowns of over 50 percent, and each one tested whether investors believed the strategy.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | $0.75 | $1,466,667 | $7,727 | 1466.7× |
| 2005 | $1.70 | $647,059 | $5,763 | 647.1× |
| 2007 | $3.60 | $305,556 | $4,789 | 305.6× |
| 2008 | $3.50 | $314,286 | $4,626 | 314.3× |
| 2010 | $8.00 | $137,500 | $6,071 | 137.5× |
| 2012 | $10.00 | $110,000 | $5,312 | 110.0× |
| 2015 | $49.00 | $22,449 | $3,301 | 22.4× |
| 2018 | $200 | $5,500 | $2,519 | 5.5× |
| 2020 | $330 | $3,333 | $2,092 | 3.3× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 2003, turning $1,000 into $1,466,667. The S&P 500 from that same year: $7,727.
On this day
- 19 April 2022: Netflix reports its first subscriber loss in a decade
- 23 May 2002: Netflix goes public at $15
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Netflix is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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