What if you bought Freeport-McMoRan in 2000?
US Industry · Mining. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play6.1× · S&P 500 same money: $4,626
$1,000 in Freeport-McMoRan at the start of 2000 would be worth about $6,111 today — 6.1 times your money, and ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch.
The story
Freeport-McMoRan digs copper, gold and molybdenum, most famously at Grasberg, a vast mine high in the mountains of Indonesian Papua. Through the 2000s it rode the China-driven commodity supercycle, and in 2007 it bought Phelps Dodge to become the largest publicly traded copper producer just as copper prices hit records. The 2008 crash took the shine off, but the real damage came later and was self-inflicted: in 2013 Freeport bought two oil and gas companies, piling on debt shortly before oil prices collapsed.
By 2015 and 2016 the shares had fallen to a fraction of their peak, the dividend was cut, and assets were sold to keep lenders calm. In 2018 Freeport agreed to hand majority ownership of Grasberg to the Indonesian state, the price of operating there indefinitely. Then the narrative turned: electrification, grid spending and electric cars made copper the metal everyone suddenly needed, and a stock bought at the pandemic lows of 2020 multiplied several times. Over the full period it was a round trip with a very good ending, but only for those who survived the middle.
The lesson: In commodity producers the price of the underlying metal sets the mood, but balance-sheet decisions made at the top of the cycle decide whether shareholders survive the bottom.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $9.00 | $6,111 | $4,626 | 6.1× |
| 2003 | $17.00 | $3,235 | $7,727 | 3.2× |
| 2005 | $19.00 | $2,895 | $5,763 | 2.9× |
| 2007 | $28.00 | $1,964 | $4,789 | 2.0× |
| 2008 | $51.00 | $1,078 | $4,626 | 1.1× |
| 2010 | $40.00 | $1,375 | $6,071 | 1.4× |
| 2012 | $37.00 | $1,486 | $5,312 | 1.5× |
| 2015 | $23.00 | $2,391 | $3,301 | 2.4× |
| 2018 | $19.00 | $2,895 | $2,519 | 2.9× |
| 2020 | $13.00 | $4,231 | $2,092 | 4.2× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 2000, turning $1,000 into $6,111. The S&P 500 from that same year: $4,626.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Freeport-McMoRan is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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