What if you bought Cameco in 2000?
US Industry · Uranium. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.
Could you have picked it? Play45.0× · S&P 500 same money: $4,626
$1,000 in Cameco at the start of 2000 would be worth about $45,000 today — 45.0 times your money, and ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch.
The story
Cameco, based in Saskatchewan, is one of the world's largest uranium producers, with high-grade mines such as McArthur River and Cigar Lake. Its share price is essentially a bet on nuclear power. In the mid-2000s uranium prices spiked on fears of supply shortages and a nuclear revival, and Cameco's shares rose roughly tenfold. A flood at Cigar Lake in 2006 delayed production for years.
The 2011 Fukushima disaster ended the nuclear renaissance story. Japan shut its reactors, Germany decided to exit nuclear power, and uranium prices fell for much of the decade. Cameco cut output, suspended McArthur River in 2018, and the shares sank to their lowest levels in well over a decade. The revival came in the 2020s: climate goals, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the electricity demands of AI data centres renewed interest in nuclear energy. Cameco and Brookfield bought reactor maker Westinghouse in 2023, and by 2026 the shares were far above their previous peak.
The lesson: Unloved commodity stocks can stay unloved for a decade; mean reversion eventually came for uranium, but patience proved as important as being right.
$1,000 invested at the start of each year
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $2.00 | $45,000 | $4,626 | 45.0× |
| 2003 | $4.00 | $22,500 | $7,727 | 22.5× |
| 2005 | $10.00 | $9,000 | $5,763 | 9.0× |
| 2007 | $40.00 | $2,250 | $4,789 | 2.2× |
| 2008 | $40.00 | $2,250 | $4,626 | 2.2× |
| 2010 | $28.00 | $3,214 | $6,071 | 3.2× |
| 2012 | $20.00 | $4,500 | $5,312 | 4.5× |
| 2015 | $16.00 | $5,625 | $3,301 | 5.6× |
| 2018 | $9.50 | $9,474 | $2,519 | 9.5× |
| 2020 | $9.00 | $10,000 | $2,092 | 10.0× |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
Best entry point in our set: 2000, turning $1,000 into $45,000. The S&P 500 from that same year: $4,626.
Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. Cameco is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.
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