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What if you bought AEX in 1990?

Countries · Netherlands. The hindsight answer, year by year, against the only benchmark that matters.

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$1,000 from 1990, today
$6,786

6.8× · S&P 500 same money: $19,429

$1,000 in AEX at the start of 1990 would be worth about $6,786 today. A plain S&P 500 index fund over the same years would have made more — the boring option won.

The story

The AEX holds the 25 or so largest companies on Euronext Amsterdam, a small index with an outsized cast: Shell, Unilever, ING, Philips, Heineken and, increasingly, ASML. In the late 1990s it more than tripled, helped by telecom and tech favourites such as KPN and a Philips that still made everything from chips to lightbulbs. The bust took it down by more than half, and in 2003 the Ahold accounting scandal at a US subsidiary sent one of the country's proudest companies into a tailspin.

The financial crisis was particularly Dutch: ABN AMRO was carved up in a 2007 takeover by a consortium that included Fortis, which then needed rescuing itself in 2008, while ING took state aid. For roughly two decades the index stayed below its 2000 peak. Its return to form owed much to ASML, the Veldhoven company whose lithography machines became essential to advanced chipmaking and which grew into the index's heaviest weight, even as Shell and Unilever moved their legal headquarters to London.

The lesson: A small national index can become a concentrated bet on a few companies, so check what you actually own before calling it diversified.

$1,000 invested at the start of each year

Bought inPrice thenWorth todayS&P 500 would beMultiple
1990$140$6,786$19,4296.8×
1995$200$4,750$14,7834.8×
2000$670$1,418$4,6261.4×
2003$320$2,969$7,7273.0×
2005$350$2,714$5,7632.7×
2007$490$1,939$4,7891.9×
2008$515$1,845$4,6261.8×
2010$335$2,836$6,0712.8×
2012$310$3,065$5,3123.1×
2015$425$2,235$3,3012.2×
2018$550$1,727$2,5191.7×
2020$605$1,570$2,0921.6×

green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money

Best entry point in our set: 1990, turning $1,000 into $6,786. The S&P 500 from that same year: $19,429.

On this day

Now try it without hindsight. The wheel decides the year and the asset class, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick, and we simulate to today. AEX is one of 258 positions on the wheel — including the ones that went to zero.

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