4 June 2021: FDA approves Wegovy for obesity
On June 4, 2021 the FDA approved Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, a higher dose of its diabetes drug semaglutide, for chronic weight management. In trials patients lost about 15% of their body weight on average. Demand exploded, supply ran short, and Novo for a time became Europe's most valuable company, with a market value larger than Denmark's entire economy.
The lesson: A solution to a widespread problem can scale faster than anyone, including the company, expects.
What it meant for investors
$1,000 in Novo Nordisk at the start of 2020 → $1,034 today, vs $2,092 in the S&P 500.
We start the clock at the start of 2020, the latest year on the wheel. That is 1.0 times the money, but $1,058 less than a plain index fund made over the same years.
What Novo Nordisk teaches: Being first to a huge market does not guarantee keeping it, and investors pay for growth expectations that competition can puncture quickly.
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $42.00 | $1,429 | $3,301 |
| 2018 | $54.00 | $1,111 | $2,519 |
| 2020 | $58.00 | $1,034 | $2,092 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
What if you bought Novo Nordisk? Every starting year and the full story →
Could you have called it at the time? The wheel picks the year, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick.
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