13 January 2012: Costa Concordia runs aground off Italy
The cruise ship Costa Concordia struck rocks off the island of Giglio and capsized, killing 32 people. The captain abandoned ship before the evacuation was complete, cementing the disaster in public memory. Costa was owned by Carnival, whose shares fell sharply as investors weighed the cost and the reputational damage. The wreck lay on its side for over a year, a very visible reminder that risk is not only on spreadsheets.
The lesson: Operational risk rarely shows up in earnings forecasts until it suddenly shows up on the front page.
What it meant for investors
$1,000 in Carnival at the start of 2012 → $882 today, vs $5,312 in the S&P 500.
We start the clock at the start of 2012, the year it happened. That is a loss of $118, while a plain index fund over the same years made $4,312.
What Carnival teaches: Surviving a crisis is not the same as recovering from it: emergency debt and share issuance can leave shareholders poorer even after customers come back.
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $34.00 | $882 | $5,312 |
| 2015 | $45.00 | $667 | $3,301 |
| 2018 | $66.00 | $455 | $2,519 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
What if you bought Carnival? Every starting year and the full story →
Could you have called it at the time? The wheel picks the year, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick.
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