29 February 2020: The US reports its first COVID-19 death
On leap day, health officials in Washington State reported the first known death from COVID-19 in the United States. It capped a week in which the S&P 500 had fallen more than 10%, its worst week since the 2008 crisis. Worse was to come in March. Many investors had assumed the virus would stay overseas. Leap day is meant to be an extra day; this one felt like a turning point.
The lesson: Assuming a distant crisis will stay distant is a bet, and often a bad one.
What it meant for investors
$1,000 in S&P 500 index fund at the start of 2020 → $2,092 today, vs $2,092 in the S&P 500.
We start the clock at the start of 2020, the year it happened. That is 2.1 times the money, but $0 less than a plain index fund made over the same years.
What S&P 500 index fund teaches: Owning the whole market removes the risk of picking the wrong company but not the risk of a lost decade, so time horizon matters as much as diversification.
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $2,060 | $3,301 | $3,301 |
| 2018 | $2,700 | $2,519 | $2,519 |
| 2020 | $3,250 | $2,092 | $2,092 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
What if you bought S&P 500 index fund? Every starting year and the full story →
More S&P 500 index fund history
- 5 February 2018: Volmageddon: the Dow drops 1,175 points
- 19 February 2020: The S&P 500 hits a record before COVID
- 3 March 2020: The Fed makes an emergency rate cut
- 6 March 2009: The S&P 500 touches 666
- 9 March 2009: The bear market bottoms
- 12 March 2020: Black Thursday: the worst day since 1987
Could you have called it at the time? The wheel picks the year, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick.
Play Sixty-40