20 February 2015: Greece gets a four-month lifeline
After weeks of tense talks, eurozone finance ministers agreed to extend Greece's bailout by four months, giving the new Syriza-led government time to propose reforms. Markets breathed a sigh of relief. It was only a pause: by summer Greece had imposed capital controls, missed an IMF payment and held a referendum before accepting a third bailout. Kicking the can can buy time, but the can is still there.
The lesson: Temporary fixes can calm markets without solving the underlying problem of too much debt.
What it meant for investors
$1,000 in Greek government bonds at the start of 2015 → $1,833 today, vs $3,301 in the S&P 500.
We start the clock at the start of 2015, the year it happened. That is 1.8 times the money, but $1,468 less than a plain index fund made over the same years.
What Greek government bonds teaches: The same bond can be the worst and best investment of a decade depending on entry price, since panic pricing often overshoots the eventual outcome.
| Bought in | Price then | Worth today | S&P 500 would be |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $60.00 | $1,833 | $3,301 |
| 2018 | $95.00 | $1,158 | $2,519 |
| 2020 | $120 | $917 | $2,092 |
green = beat the S&P 500 · red = lost money
What if you bought Greek government bonds? Every starting year and the full story →
Could you have called it at the time? The wheel picks the year, you pick the position, ten seconds a pick.
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